Today

Markets have been wobbling ahead of the open, but got a slight boost following initial jobless claims that beat expectations. At 712k the numbers are still not great show that the labour market is still under pressure. The market hasn’t really cared about the current situation for some time, but instead is forward looking. Global stocks appear set to head again toward record highs as we wait for updates on the fiscal package. There is still hope of a deal, perhaps over the weekend. The U.S. dollar continues to slide, bonds are rather flat in trading this morning with U.S. 10 year yields resting just below the highs set in early November.
 
Meanwhile, U.S. Covid cases/hospitalizations/deaths all made single-day records yesterday. LA has the most infections of any county in the U.S. and the Mayor issued an order for residents to stay at home, warning that the city is at a tipping point. Yesterday’s daily new cases nearly eclipsed all of Canada.
 
The vaccine can’t come soon enough for many, and based on projections from those at the helm of Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. should be able to distribute enough coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna to immunize 100M people by the end of February, which would protect the elderly, healthcare workers and people with pre-existing conditions. I guess we’ll wait and see if there are 100m willing people.
 
Congress has set the stage for delisting Chinese stocks from the U.S. after approving a bill that would remove foreign companies off of U.S. exchanges if they don’t adhere to U.S. Public Accounting. The bill has bipartisan support, and it’s one that Trump will happily sign as a final parting gift to China.

On the home front, Canada just got another Unicorn - and it's based out of Calgary.  Software firm Benevity just raised money in a deal, valuing it at more than US$1bn, according to anonymous sources.  The deal was closed last night, so expect more details to follow.  Benevity is a beacon for the Calgary tech scene and has backed support from the likes of JMI and General Atlantic.

Diversion:  If you like trivia / jeopardy, you're in luck.  Fans archived over +400k jeopardy clues and their answers over its 37 season run, here.
 

Connected Wealth™ Tactical Primer

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Commodities
 

Fixed income and economics

The release of yesterday afternoon’s latest Beige Book was mostly a mixed bag with the positives of an uptick in November business activity countered by concerns of the rising probability of further shutdowns. While the expansion was characterized as modest or moderate and most districts reported positive outlooks, three of the four Midwestern Districts observed that activity began to slow last month. The general view projected that growth will slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter and the economy will slip into a modest contraction early next year (though “cautious optimism” on the outlook following positive vaccine news was expressed by most surveyed). Downside risks also included the looming expiration of unemployment benefits and moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures. A mildly positive payrolls print was signaled for this Friday but highlighted an incomplete recovery as virus-induced hiring difficulties were feared to lead to a drop in employment over the winter months (before recovering in 2021). The holiday shopping outlook was uncertain particularly among brick-and-mortar stores whom “expressed high uncertainty, with many being cautious about stocking up for the holidays.

Not likely to move markets at all given tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll release, but weekly Initial jobless claims ending November 28 came in at 712K to beat the 775K forecast. That similarly fell from 787K prior and marked the second fewest filings since the pandemic began. Continuing claims also improved to 5.52MM versus 6.09MM prior. And earlier this morning, the Challenger Job Cuts survey improved to 45.4% year over year and down from October's 60.4% print. It’s worth reiterating that markets should look past these data points though as several distortions in the readings have been occurring recently due to the unprecedented nature of the pandemic. The U.S. Department of Labor has been using the number of total weeks claimed as a proxy for the number of individuals claiming benefits. As a result, the reported numbers “do not accurately estimate the number of unique individuals claiming benefits,” according to the Government Accountability Office (GAO). This clarification disclaimer should be published in upcoming releases, potentially implying lower recent claim counts.

Chart of the day
 

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Quote of the day
 

The work of today is the history of tomorrow and we are its makers. - Juliette Gordon Low